Food security threatened by sea ice loss

The mission of the Arctic Methane Emergency Group (AMEG) is:
  (i)   to alert the world to the rapid retreat of sea ice;
  (ii)  to warn of the consequences; and
  (iii) to ensure measures are taken to cool the Arctic and deal with the consequences.

So far we have concentrated on the methane threat which has resulted from loss of sea ice and Arctic warming; this threat will be aggravated by further loss of sea ice and faster warming. However a second consequence concerns weather disruption, which is proving to have serious implications for food security. 

If you share AMEG’s concerns on this issue, we have produced an example letter for you to send to a government representative, urging action.

There is a growing realisation in the scientific community that our current weird weather, being stuck first on heat and drought and then on cold and wet, is due to the sticking or 'blocking pattern' of the jet stream - this in turn due to the Arctic sea ice disappearing and Arctic warming. It was front-page news in The Times earlier this week [1]. Also there's an article about it in the New Scientist [2]  (page 36):

"In summers with less sea ice in the Arctic... the jet stream slows down, it takes a more mazy path, with meanders that move around more slowly... stays in one place for weeks... weather is likely to become more extreme".

This deterioration of the climate is likely to become more marked as the sea ice disappears, which is happening faster than acknowledged by many scientists, including those at the Met Office. On 21st February, AMEG presented evidence to the Environment Audit Committee (EAC) for their hearing on “Protecting the Arctic”. In a subsequent hearing, this evidence was disputed by Professor Julia Slingo, chief scientist at the Met Office, which includes the Hadley Centre. Then in early July, EAC published AMEG's rebuttal, in particular slating Professor Slingo for denial of the speed of sea ice retreat [3]. AMEG rubbishes all the Hadley Centre models on which so much government policy is based because they do not take into account the observations of what is happening to sea ice thickness and volume. The ridiculous optimism of climate change predictions from these models has engendered a false sense of security about the sea ice and methane, as if nothing need be done. However AMEG shows that geoengineering is vital to cool the Arctic, and the government needs to act, as a matter of national and global security.

Quoting from the appendix of [3]:

"One of the questions raised at our hearing on 21st February concerned what life would be like in 20 years’ time, i.e. by 2032. We have considered this in respect of different scenarios, depending on methane emissions. We estimate that the Arctic is warming at about 1 degree per decade, around five times faster than the rest of the planet, and this is mainly because of sea ice retreat and more open water to absorb solar energy. In 10 years, i.e. by 2022, PIOMAS volume data suggests that the Arctic Ocean will be essentially free of ice for 6 months of the year, and the Arctic will then be warming at about 4 degrees per decade. The Arctic temperature will be 5 or 6 degrees hotter than today. The disruptive effect on Northern Hemisphere weather systems will be traumatic, leading to severe food shortages for all and starvation for millions if not billions of people."

Please support us! On the web site you will find a template for a suitable letter to send to a government representative, such as an MP.

References:

[1] The Times, front page, July 11th: “Endless rain flows from melting ice” (registration required)

[2] How global warming is driving our weather wild (registration required)
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21528721.800-how-global-warming-is-driving-our-weather-wild.html

[3] Supplementary written evidence from John Nissen, AMEG
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201213/cmselect/cmenvaud/writev/171/arc31.htm

Message from the Arctic Methane Emergency Group

From the Arctic Methane Emergency Group, AMEG
http://www.ameg.me/

1. A planetary catastrophe to be averted

We are starting our first post on this blog by presenting what we consider the overwhelming scientific evidence of a planetary emergency arising from a combination of: (i) the warming of the Arctic, (ii) the rapid melting away of Arctic sea ice, (iii) the releasing into the atmosphere of ever larger quantities of the potent greenhouse gas, methane, from thawing structures, and (iv) positive feedback between these three processes.

Figure 1. The huge temperature rise in the Arctic (latitudes 60 North to North Pole), compared to temperatures at lower latitudes (surface air temperatures as nine-year running means relative to the 1880–1890 mean). 

Figure 2. Yearly Minimum Arctic Icve Volume Data from the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS), at the Polar Science Center, with trend (in red) added by Wipneus.  

Figure 3. The striking rise of methane in the Arctic (click on image to enlarge)

Figure 4. Global emissions cause warming, especially in the Arctic, where warming is further accelerated by feedbacks, in particular sea ice loss and methane releases, threatening to lead to runaway global warming. 

We argue that the response to this emergency should be concerted international action, taking measures to cool the Arctic which would include geoengineering of a kind known as “solar radiation management” (SRM) [1]. These measures should be taken as quickly as conceivably possible in order to reduce the risk of passing a point of no return – a point beyond which the whole climate system would tip, inevitably, irreversibly and inexorably, into such a hot state as to threaten the survival of civilisation.

This is the situation in a nutshell:

• the Arctic is warming rapidly – much faster than global warming;
• the sea ice volume is plummeting; 
• a collapse in sea ice extent is likely by 2015;
• a collapse in sea ice means loss of habitat and biodiversity, risking the breakdown of an important marine food chain;
• a collapse in sea ice also means faster warming of the Arctic, creating more climate disruption and weather extremes in the Northern Hemisphere.

This is bad enough. Add to this the menace of Arctic methane. Consider that: 

• methane’s potency as a greenhouse gas is about 105x that of CO2 over 20 years, weight for weight [2];
• there’s a vast quantity of methane frozen into Arctic seabed [3];
• loss of sea ice cover allows storms to mix the warmed surface water with colder water beneath, causing shallow seabed to warm, thawing out methane-holding structures;
• because of warming and instabilities in the seabed, large quantities of methane could be released quite rapidly – enough to drastically exacerbate global warming [4]; 
• methane bubbles have now been observed in huge plumes, over 1km across, in shallow sea [5], suggesting an escalation of methane emissions could be happening already, even without further warming of the Arctic;
• Arctic methane may be contributing to rising global levels of methane in the atmosphere [6].

The worst fear is that methane could build up in the atmosphere sufficiently to start a runaway cycle of greenhouse warming and more methane release, leading to abrupt and catastrophic climate change.

The only way to prevent a chain of events which could lead to such a runaway cycle is to cool the Arctic, save the sea ice and dampen methane emissions. To minimise risk, we need to use all possible means.